Australia’s next federal election is scheduled to occur on or before May 17, 2025, and there are two main contenders that will be vying for votes over the next month and a half.
Representing incumbent Labor Party, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. His primary opponent, the Liberal-National Coalition, and Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton.
The last election down under, in May 2022, saw Labor secure a narrow majority with 77 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Coalition won 58 seats. Other parties made up the final 16 seats.
Leading up to the 2025 election, polls are much tighter. A YouGov poll from mid-March 2025 showed that a 50-50 split between Labor and the Coalition suggests a hung parliament is a real possibility. However, a Roy Morgan survey from mid-March 2025 gave Labor a more substantial lead at 54.5% to the Coalition’s 45.5%, boosted by the public response to events like Cyclone Alfred and perceived Coalition missteps, such as Peter Dutton’s retracted pledge to end remote work for public servants.
Historically, Australian polls are not to be trusted, so anything could happen. In 2019, the Coalition pulled off an upset win against the probability of the projected polls. Now, with the election still weeks away, and potential dates like May 3 or May 10 speculated, both parties have time to implement policies and adjust their respective strategies to gain a late advantage. The key for the Labor will be their ability to leverage its incumbency. At the same time, the Coalition’s success will be primarily due to capitalizing on discontent with the current regime. The smaller parties, like the Greens and Independents, could also play a massive role in strategic voting to turn the tide in favour of the Labor or Coalition.
This bet seems like a complete coin toss and is a pick ‘em on most platforms. Albanese is currently -120 to retain his office, and in a time of international uncertainty, many Aussies may elect to go with the safety of the status quo.
Representing incumbent Labor Party, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. His primary opponent, the Liberal-National Coalition, and Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton.
The last election down under, in May 2022, saw Labor secure a narrow majority with 77 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Coalition won 58 seats. Other parties made up the final 16 seats.
Leading up to the 2025 election, polls are much tighter. A YouGov poll from mid-March 2025 showed that a 50-50 split between Labor and the Coalition suggests a hung parliament is a real possibility. However, a Roy Morgan survey from mid-March 2025 gave Labor a more substantial lead at 54.5% to the Coalition’s 45.5%, boosted by the public response to events like Cyclone Alfred and perceived Coalition missteps, such as Peter Dutton’s retracted pledge to end remote work for public servants.
Historically, Australian polls are not to be trusted, so anything could happen. In 2019, the Coalition pulled off an upset win against the probability of the projected polls. Now, with the election still weeks away, and potential dates like May 3 or May 10 speculated, both parties have time to implement policies and adjust their respective strategies to gain a late advantage. The key for the Labor will be their ability to leverage its incumbency. At the same time, the Coalition’s success will be primarily due to capitalizing on discontent with the current regime. The smaller parties, like the Greens and Independents, could also play a massive role in strategic voting to turn the tide in favour of the Labor or Coalition.
This bet seems like a complete coin toss and is a pick ‘em on most platforms. Albanese is currently -120 to retain his office, and in a time of international uncertainty, many Aussies may elect to go with the safety of the status quo.
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